Scottish Oceans Institute: Current seminars

21 Feb 2017
1:00 PM
Dyers Brae
Seminar Room

CBD Seminar: Conflicts between biodiversity conservation and human livelihoods: an interdisciplinary approach
Nils Bunnfield
Stirling University

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Conflicts between human livelihoods and biodiversity conservation are increasing in scale and intensity and have been shown to be damaging for both biodiversity and humans. Managing a specific natural resource often results in conflict between those stakeholders focussing on improving livelihoods and food security and those focussed on biodiversity conversation. Uncertainty, for example from climate change, decreases food security, puts further pressure on biodiversity and exacerbates conflicts. I will present first results towards developing a novel model that integrates game theory and social-ecological modelling to develop new approaches to manage conservation conflicts. The project has importance for society at large because ecosystems and their services are central to human wellbeing and unlocking these conflicts will provide great potential for a more sustainable future.

https://sti-cs.org/nils-bunnefeld/

host: ecg5@st-andrews.ac.uk

refID: 1841

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23 Feb 2017
12:00 PM
Bute
Bute Building, Theatre D (C42)

SOI seminar: From physical seascape to top predators: an integrative approach to understand and manage dynamic ecoystems in the Southern Ocean
Dr Cedric Cotte
Museum National d'Histoire Naturelle

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Note: SOI seminar earlier than usual time. **12-13h** 

host: Prof Patrick Miller

refID: 1874

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06 Apr 2017
1:00 PM
Bute
Lecture theatre D

SOI seminar: Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
Dr Nick Dunstone
Met Office

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The winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the primary mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic sector. It has a profound impact on surface conditions over the North Atlantic ocean and temperature & precipitation over Europe and North America. The NAO exhibits pronounced interannual variability, particularly in the last decade, with strong positive NAO leading to mild & stormy European winters (e.g. 2011/12, 2013/14) and strong negative NAO winters giving cold & dry winters (e.g. 2009/10, 2010/11). Until recently seasonal forecasting systems have had no significant skill in predicting the winter NAO, leading many to assume that the NAO was largely a chaotic mode of atmospheric variability and inherently unpredictable. Here I will outline our recent work using the Met Office high-resolution climate models to show that the NAO is indeed predictable both one month ahead of winter and that significant skill still remains one year ahead. I will  examine the drivers of predictability on these two timescales and show that the discovery of NAO predictability is at odds with the skill of the model predicting itself. This surprising result indicates that the real-world is in fact far more predictable than we previously thought and it is likely that even the latest high-resolution climate models are unable to realistically represent the physical processes and feedbacks operating in the real world, resulting in too little signal and/or too much noise. Finally, I show how these new skilful NAO predictions are beginning to be used to aid decision making in government and industry.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/people/nick-dunstone

host: Prof Chris Todd

refID: 1862

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13 Apr 2017
1:00 PM
BMS

TBC
Petra Neveceralova
Charles University, Prague

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host: elc6@st-andrews.ac.uk

refID: 1863

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